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Registro completo
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Biblioteca (s) : |
INIA Las Brujas. |
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Fecha : |
23/11/2016 |
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Actualizado : |
10/02/2020 |
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Autor : |
FERNANDES, K.; BAETHGEN, W.; BERNARDES, S.; DEFRIES, R.; DEWITT, D.; GODDARD, L.; LAVADO, W.; LEE, D. E.; PADOCH, CH.; PINEDO-VASQUEZ, M.; URIARTE, M. |
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Afiliación : |
KATIA FERNANDES, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, USA; WALTER BAETHGEN, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, USA; SERGIO BERNARDES, Department of Geography, University of Georgia, USA; RUTH DEFRIES, Department of Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Biology, Columbia University, USA; DAVID DEWITT, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, USA; LISA GODDARD, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, USA; WALDO LAVADO, Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia e Hidrologia, Perú; DONG EUN LEE, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, USA; CHRISTINE PADOCH, Institute of Economic Botany, New York Botanical Garden, USA; MIGUEL PINEDO-VASQUEZ, Center for Environmental Research and Conservation, Columbia University, USA; MARÍA URIARTE, Department of Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Biology, Columbia University, USA. |
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Título : |
North tropical atlantic influence on western Amazon fire season variability. |
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Fecha de publicación : |
2011 |
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Fuente / Imprenta : |
Geophysical Research Letters, 2011, v. 38, no. 12, L12701. |
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DOI : |
10.1029/2011GL047392 |
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Idioma : |
Inglés |
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Notas : |
Publication History: Issue online 17 June 2011 // Version of record online 17 June 2011 // Manuscript Accepted 2 May 2011 // Manuscript Revised 26 April 2011 //
Manuscript Received 7 March 2011 |
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Contenido : |
ABSTRACT.
The prevailing wet climate in the western Amazon is not favorable to the natural occurrence of fires. Nevertheless, the current process of clearing of humid forests for agriculture and cattle ranching has increased the vulnerability of the region to the spread of fires. Using meteorological stations precipitation and the Moderate Resolution Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Active-Fires (AF) during 2000?2009, we show that fire anomalies vary closely with July-August-September (JAS) precipitation variability as measured by the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The precipitation variability is, in turn, greatly determined by sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the North Tropical Atlantic (NTA). We develop a linear regression model to relate local fire activity to an index of the NTA-SST. By using seasonal forecasts of SST from a coupled model, we are able to predict anomalous JAS fire activity as early as April. We applied the method to predict the severe 2010 JAS season, which indicated strongly positive seasonal fire anomalies within the 95% prediction confidence intervals in most western Amazon. The spatial distribution of predicted SPI was also in accordance with observed precipitation anomalies. This three months lead time precipitation and fire prediction product in the western Amazon could help local decision makers to establish an early warning systems or other appropriate course of action before the fire season begins.
@ 2011 by the American Geophysical Union MenosABSTRACT.
The prevailing wet climate in the western Amazon is not favorable to the natural occurrence of fires. Nevertheless, the current process of clearing of humid forests for agriculture and cattle ranching has increased the vulnerability of the region to the spread of fires. Using meteorological stations precipitation and the Moderate Resolution Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Active-Fires (AF) during 2000?2009, we show that fire anomalies vary closely with July-August-September (JAS) precipitation variability as measured by the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The precipitation variability is, in turn, greatly determined by sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the North Tropical Atlantic (NTA). We develop a linear regression model to relate local fire activity to an index of the NTA-SST. By using seasonal forecasts of SST from a coupled model, we are able to predict anomalous JAS fire activity as early as April. We applied the method to predict the severe 2010 JAS season, which indicated strongly positive seasonal fire anomalies within the 95% prediction confidence intervals in most western Amazon. The spatial distribution of predicted SPI was also in accordance with observed precipitation anomalies. This three months lead time precipitation and fire prediction product in the western Amazon could help local decision makers to establish an early warning systems or other appropriate course of action before the fire season begins.
@ 2011 by the American Geophysic... Presentar Todo |
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Palabras claves : |
DROUGHT; GLOBAL CLIMATE MODELS; NATURAL HAZARDS. |
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Asunto categoría : |
-- |
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Marc : |
LEADER 02521naa a2200301 a 4500
001 1056120
005 2020-02-10
008 2011 bl uuuu u00u1 u #d
024 7 $a10.1029/2011GL047392$2DOI
100 1 $aFERNANDES, K.
245 $aNorth tropical atlantic influence on western Amazon fire season variability.$h[electronic resource]
260 $c2011
500 $aPublication History: Issue online 17 June 2011 // Version of record online 17 June 2011 // Manuscript Accepted 2 May 2011 // Manuscript Revised 26 April 2011 // Manuscript Received 7 March 2011
520 $aABSTRACT. The prevailing wet climate in the western Amazon is not favorable to the natural occurrence of fires. Nevertheless, the current process of clearing of humid forests for agriculture and cattle ranching has increased the vulnerability of the region to the spread of fires. Using meteorological stations precipitation and the Moderate Resolution Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Active-Fires (AF) during 2000?2009, we show that fire anomalies vary closely with July-August-September (JAS) precipitation variability as measured by the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The precipitation variability is, in turn, greatly determined by sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the North Tropical Atlantic (NTA). We develop a linear regression model to relate local fire activity to an index of the NTA-SST. By using seasonal forecasts of SST from a coupled model, we are able to predict anomalous JAS fire activity as early as April. We applied the method to predict the severe 2010 JAS season, which indicated strongly positive seasonal fire anomalies within the 95% prediction confidence intervals in most western Amazon. The spatial distribution of predicted SPI was also in accordance with observed precipitation anomalies. This three months lead time precipitation and fire prediction product in the western Amazon could help local decision makers to establish an early warning systems or other appropriate course of action before the fire season begins. @ 2011 by the American Geophysical Union
653 $aDROUGHT
653 $aGLOBAL CLIMATE MODELS
653 $aNATURAL HAZARDS
700 1 $aBAETHGEN, W.
700 1 $aBERNARDES, S.
700 1 $aDEFRIES, R.
700 1 $aDEWITT, D.
700 1 $aGODDARD, L.
700 1 $aLAVADO, W.
700 1 $aLEE, D. E.
700 1 $aPADOCH, CH.
700 1 $aPINEDO-VASQUEZ, M.
700 1 $aURIARTE, M.
773 $tGeophysical Research Letters, 2011$gv. 38, no. 12, L12701.
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| Registros recuperados : 3 | |
| 1. |  | BASSU, S.; BRISSON, N.; DURAND, J.L.; BOOTE, K.; LIZASO, J.; JONES, J.W.; ROSENZWEIG, C.; RUANE, A.C.; ADAM, M.; BARON, C.; BASSO, B.; BIERNATH, C.; BOOGAARD, H.; CONIJN, S.; CORBEELS, M.L; DERYNG, D.; SANTIS, G. DE; GAYLER, S.; GRASSINI, P.; HATFIELD, J.; HOEK, S.; IZAURRALDE, C.; JONGSCHAAP, R.; KEMANIAN, A.R.; KERSEBAUM, C.KIM, S-H.; KUMAR, N.; MAKOWSKI, D.; MÜLLER, C.; NENDEL, C.; PRIESACK, E.; PRAVIA, V.; SAU, F.; SHCHERBAK, I.; TAO, F.; TEXEIRA, E.; TIMLIN, D.; WAHA, K. How do various maize crop models vary in their responses to climate change factors? Global Change Biology, 2014, v.20(7), p. 2301-2320. Article history: Received 7 June 2013 and accepted 2 December 2013, published 2014.| Tipo: Artículos en Revistas Indexadas Internacionales | Circulación / Nivel : A - 1 |
| Biblioteca(s): INIA Treinta y Tres. |
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| 2. | | GUARIN, J. R.; MARTRE, P; EWERT, F.; WEBBER, H.; DUERI, S.; CALDERINI, D.; REYNOLDS, M.; MOLERO, G.; MIRALLES, D.; GARCIA, G.; SLAFER, G.; GIUNTA, F.; PEQUENO, D. N. L.; STELLA, T.; AHMED, M.; ALDERMAN, P. D.; BASSO, B.; BERGER, A.; BINDI, M.; BRACHO-MUJICA, G.; CAMMARANO, D.; CHEN, Y.; DUMONT, B.; REZAEI, E. E.; FERERES, E.; FERRISE, R.; GAISER, T.; GAO, Y.; GARCIA-VILA, M.; GAYLER, S.; HOCHMAN, Z.; HOOGENBOOM, G.; HUNT, L. A.; KERSEBAUM, K. C.; NENDEL, C.; OLESEN, J. E.; PALOSUO, T.; PRIESACK, E.; PULLENS, J. W. M.; RODRÍGUEZ, A.; RÖTTER, R. P.; RUIZ RAMOS, M.; SEMENOV, M. A.; SENAPATI, N.; SIEBERT, S.; SRIVASTAVA, A. M.; STÖCKLE, C.; SUPIT, I.; TAO, F.; THORBURN, P.; WANG, E.; WEBER, T. K. D.; XIAO, L.; ZHANG, Z.; ZHAO, C.; ZHAO, J.; ZHAO, Z.; ZHU, Y.; ASSENG, S. Evidence for increasing global wheat yield potential. [Letter]. Environmental Research Letters, 12 December 2022, Volume 17, 124045. OPEN ACCESS. doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aca77c Article history: Received 13 June 2022; Accepted 30 November 2022; Published 12 December 2022. -- Corresponding author: Jose Rafael Guarin, E-mail: j.guarin@columbia.edu -- LICENSE: Original content from this work may be used under the...| Tipo: Artículos en Revistas Indexadas Internacionales | Circulación / Nivel : Internacional - -- |
| Biblioteca(s): INIA Las Brujas. |
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| 3. | | MARCAIDA, M.; ASSENG, S.; EWERT, F.; BASSU, S.; DURAND, J.L.; LI, T.; MARTRE, P.; ADAM, M.; AGGARWAL, P.K.; ANGULO, C.; BARON, C.; BASSO, B.; BERTUZZI, P.; BIERNATH, C.; BOOGAARD, H.; BOOTE, K.J.; BOUMAN, B.; BREGAGLIO, S.; BRISSON, N.; BUIS, S.; CAMMARANO, D.; CHALLINOR, A.J.; CONFALONIERI, R.; CONIJN, J.G.; CORBEELS, M.; DERYNG, D.; DE SANCTIS, G.; DOLTRA, J.; FUMOTO, T.; GAYDON, D.; GAYLER, S.; GOLDBERG, R.; GRANT, R.F.; GRASSINI, P.; HATFIELD, J.L.; HASEGAWA, T.; HENG, L.; HOEK, S.; HOOKER, J.; HUNT, L.A.; INGWERSEN, J.; IZAURRALDE, R.C.; JONGSCHAAP, R.E.E.; JONES, J.W.; KEMANIAN, R.A.; KERSEBAUM, K.C.; KIM, S.-H.; LIZASO, J.; MÜLLER, C.; NAKAGAWA, H.; NARESH KUMAR, S.; NENDEL, C.; O'LEARY, G.J.; OLESEN, J.E.; ORIOL, P.; OSBORNE, T.M.; PALOSUO, T.; PRAVIA, V.; PRIESACK, E.; RIPOCHE, D.; ROSENZWEIG, C.; RUANE, A.C.; RUGET, F.; SAU, F.; SEMENOV, M.A.; SHCHERBAK, I.; SINGH, B.; SINGH, U.; SOO, H.K.; STEDUTO, P.; STÖCKLE, C.; STRATONOVITCH, P.; STRECK, T.; SUPIT, I.; TANG, L.; TAO, F.; TEIXEIRA, E.I.; THORBURN, P.; TIMLIN, D.; TRAVASSO, M.; RÖTTER, R.P.; WAHA, K.; WALLACH, D.; WHITE, J.W.; WILKENS, P.; WILLIAMS, J.R.; WOLF, J.; YIN, X.; YOSHIDA, H.; ZHANG, Z.; ZHU, Y. A statistical analysis of three ensembles of crop model responses to temperature and CO2 concentration. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2015, v.214-215, p. 483-493. Article history: Received 6 March 2015 / Received in revised form 29 July 2015 / Accepted 20 September 2015 / Available online 1 October 2015.| Tipo: Artículos en Revistas Indexadas Internacionales | Circulación / Nivel : Internacional - -- |
| Biblioteca(s): INIA Las Brujas; INIA Treinta y Tres. |
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| Registros recuperados : 3 | |
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